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Diskussionspapiere - Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)

Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, function, or attitude?

Autor: Oliver Gloede and Lukas Menkhoff
Nummer: 428, Sep 2011, pp. 45
JEL-Class: G1, D84, F31

Abstract:
This paper examines financial professionals’ overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals’ self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a moderate degree, including many cases of underconfidence. In analyzing this, we find that working experience is accompanied by less overconfidence. Function is also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent success appears with more overconfident professionals.

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